2015 Electricity Statement of Opportunities report released

by Energy Action | Aug 21, 2015
On 13 August 2015, the Australian Energy Market Operator released its 2015 Electricity Statement of Opportunities reporting that in the past 12 months, industry has announced that it intends to withdraw approximately 4,550 megawatts (MW) of generation capacity across the National Electricity Market over the next ten years.

The 2015 Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) uses current information provided by industry to report on the adequacy of existing and committed electricity supply in the National Electricity Market (NEM) to meet the maximum demand and annual consumption forecasts detailed in AEMO’s 2015 National Electricity Forecasting Report over the next ten years (2015–16 to 2024–25)

AEMO Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Mr Matt Zema said that most of these withdrawals are planned for New South Wales and South Australia, which could lead to a greater reliance on interconnectors to supply electricity to these states.

The ESOO does not consider market prices, profitability, or other costs and incentives, such as schemes supporting renewable energy generation, that affect commercial decisions to invest in or withdraw generation capacity. Therefore, it does not forecast any market response to potential supply shortfalls or government policy, such as the Renewable Energy Target.

The 2015 ESOO highlights:

  • - In New South Wales in the past year, the market has announced 2,315 MW of generation capacity withdrawal. This is in addition to 1,000 MW of withdrawal announced for this region before the 2014 ESOO publication.

  • - In South Australia, generation capacity reserves are reducing, with approximately 1,505 MW of withdrawals announced, placing greater reliance on imports from Victoria.

  • - In Victoria, generation capacity in the region is increasingly required to support SA and NSW while also meeting increasing local maximum demand requirements.

  • - Under the high demand scenario, all regions except Tasmania could experience Reliability Standard breaches by 2024–25.

The table below summarises AEMO’s supply adequacy assessment for each NEM region.

Region

Low Scenario

Medium Scenario

High Scenario

Timing

Shortfall

Timing

Shortfall

Timing

Shortfall

Queensland

Beyond 2024–25

N/A

Beyond 2024–25

N/A

2021-22

0.0050%

New South Wales

Beyond 2024–25

N/A

2022-23

0.0056%

2021-22

0.0022%

Victoria

Beyond 2024–25

N/A

2024-25

0.0033%

2019–20

0.0029%

South Australia

Beyond 2024–25

N/A

2019–20

0.0022%

2019–20

0.0043%

Tasmania

Beyond 2024–25

N/A

Beyond 2024–25

N/A

Beyond 2024–25

N/A

Source: AEMO

1 comment

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  1. Glenn Maher | Sep 01, 2015
    Has it been made public which power stations they intend to close and have approximate dates been set ?

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